Diplomacy prevails as a non-proliferation agreement between the P5+1 and Iran is reached. The debate over agreed upon terms commences and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement stands for inspection, even as it is evident the alternative to diplomacy is use of force — and another war that would carry far beyond the Middle East
Strategic Demands is assessing the following Documents as we begin to work toward judgment of the Comprehensive Plan, its impact, its risks, its achievement and, in our opinion, the potential for the JCPOA to become a game changer in regulating and controlling nuclear proliferation, adding integral levels of monitoring/inspection/verification to the underlying Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
The profound challenge of regulating and controlling the spread of nuclear weapon capabilities and technology is not unique to Iran. The additional capabilities to inspect and regulate being developed by intelligence agencies and now the International Atomic Energy Agency in the JCPOA, will extend, enhance and finance valuable new tools and capabilities that can be added to non-proliferation inspection regimes and oversight efforts.
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We start with the US State Department announcement of an agreement —
http://www.state.gov/p/nea/ci/ir/
http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2015/07/244885.htm
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Then we step back to take an encyclopedic, open-source overview —
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action
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Then consideration of the JCPOA documents:
http://eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/docs/iran_agreement/annex_1_nuclear_related_commitments_en.pdf
http://eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/docs/iran_agreement/annex_1_attachements_en.pdf
http://eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/docs/iran_agreement/annex_3_civil_nuclear_cooperation_en.pdf
http://eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/docs/iran_agreement/annex_4_joint_commission_en.pdf
http://eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/docs/iran_agreement/annex_5_implementation_plan_en.pdf
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An essential element will be the extent and results of the International Atomic Energy Agency work on the Iran ‘portfolio’, initiated with the announcement of a plan of action.
The actions of the IAEA and responses by Iran over the course of the remainder of 2015, as required by the JCPOA, will be revealing.
As attention focuses on the results of the upcoming months, a point that needs to be emphasized is the Iran deal will produce substantive P5+1 support and funding to develop additional capabilities of the IAEA. In turn, this support will develop a larger scope of the international agency to verify nuclear arms control actions and agreements over time. This is a considerable, if yet unrecognized, accomplishment as nuclear proliferation issues are rising security threats internationally.
One need look no further than the recent collapse of the five-year Review Conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the increasing tensions of a multi-polar ‘new Cold War‘.
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15 July 2015
